War

On Christmas Day, 2023, Brett McGurk received an urgent call about an Iranian-backed drone attack that had injured US troops in Iraq. This incident escalated as President Biden authorized targeted strikes on militia sites and, later, on specific individuals linked to the attacks. Despite these efforts, threats from the Houthis in Yemen intensified, prompting a series of US-led air and naval strikes. Through indirect talks in Oman, McGurk warned Iran to restrain its proxies, yet further aggression led to a major US retaliatory operation on February 2, targeting Iranian-linked sites in Iraq and Syria. Amid rising political criticism, Biden sought a controlled response to avoid a broader conflict.

On January 8, Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) to gauge Saudi Arabia’s interest in normalizing relations with Israel, a diplomatic milestone with potentially transformative implications for the Middle East. MBS expressed urgency in pursuing normalization but emphasized that this point hinged on two conditions: a peaceful situation in Gaza and a credible pathway toward a Palestinian state. Following this, Blinken met with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, who appeared open to the Saudi proposal but expressed hesitation about the specifics of a Palestinian pathway. Despite Blinken’s insistence on concrete, irreversible commitments, Netanyahu’s approach was tentative, prioritizing security concerns over any definitive political resolution for Palestinians.

On January 14, 2024, Blinken and Sullivan met with President Biden at Camp David to discuss diplomatic challenges and US strategy in the Middle East. Blinken briefed Biden on his conversations with Saudi Crown Prince MBS about potential normalization with Israel and his candid discussions with Netanyahu, who remained reluctant to make concessions for a Palestinian state. Biden saw Israeli military plans in Gaza, especially around Rafah, as a humanitarian crisis in the making and stressed to Blinken that the US could not support such operations without a clear civilian protection plan. Despite urging for a Palestinian pathway and international support, Netanyahu’s resistance strained US-Israel relations, and American public support waned amid reports of rising civilian casualties in Gaza. Biden ultimately insisted on drawing a “line at Rafah” and sought alternative strategies, emphasizing that support for Israel must not extend to offensive military actions without civilian safeguards.

In March 2024, former President Trump spoke with retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, who remained a staunch supporter of Trump’s policies and was actively engaged in his 2024 campaign. When reflecting on Trump’s decisive leadership style, Kellogg contrasted it with Biden’s, whom he viewed as overly cautious. He underscored Trump’s willingness to support Israel and his direct approach to Middle Eastern diplomacy, recounting his belief that Biden’s focus on humanitarian concerns in Gaza weakened the US stance on Hamas. Kellogg also touched on his recent meetings with Israeli officials and their resolute stance on eradicating Hamas. Meanwhile, Trump’s former advisors, such as Robert O’Brien, were quietly working to re-establish relationships with foreign governments in anticipation of a potential second term, presenting Trump’s leadership as more stable and predictable.

In March 2024, Senator Lindsey Graham’s diplomatic efforts continued as he traveled to Saudi Arabia to maintain negotiations for a potential normalization treaty between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Graham arranged calls between Crown Prince MBS and various US officials, including former President Trump and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, to gauge support and strategy. MBS reiterated his conditions for normalization, primarily a credible commitment to a Palestinian state, while Graham emphasized that normalization could only succeed under President Biden’s term, as it required bipartisan support in Congress. Despite MBS’s stated ambition, obstacles remained, particularly due to shifting Israeli sentiments post-October 7 and concerns over Saudi nuclear ambitions. Graham reminded MBS of the strategic advantages of a defense cooperation agreement with the US, which would act as protection against Iran, framing this as an essential element of Saudi security.

On April 1, 2024, Israel conducted a targeted airstrike that killed Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a high-ranking Iranian commander in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and six others. Ambassador Michael Herzog informed US officials, who expressed concerns over the potential for severe Iranian retaliation. Iran quickly responded by condemning the US as complicit, though the White House asserted that it had no involvement. Heightened security measures ensued as US forces braced for further conflict escalation, particularly fearing Hezbollah’s involvement. Days later, President Biden discussed Iran’s brewing hostility with Netanyahu, also challenging his plans for continued operations in Gaza. While the US prepared to assist Israel defensively, Biden cautioned Netanyahu on the need for specific humanitarian efforts in Gaza. In response to an unprecedented missile attack anticipated from Iran, the US and allied forces mobilized defense preparations to prevent further destabilization.

On April 13, 2024, Iran launched an unprecedented attack, Operation True Promise, on Israel, coordinating UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles), cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles to hit targets simultaneously. The US and allies, including Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and European countries, mobilized a sophisticated missile defense to intercept the incoming threats. Despite successfully neutralizing most of the missiles, four impacts occurred in Israel, leading to minimal casualties but heightening tensions. President Biden urged Prime Minister Netanyahu to consider this defense a victory, discouraging retaliatory strikes. After intense debate within Israel’s cabinet, a limited Israeli response targeted Iran’s air defenses near Isfahan, sending a clear but contained message. Both nations chose restraint in publicizing the incident, ultimately preventing a larger escalation.

In spring 2024, CIA Director Bill Burns made an important visit to Ukraine, where he assessed the growing strain on Ukrainian President Zelensky and his forces, who were facing severe shortages in ammunition and air defenses. Burns observed Zelensky’s resilience despite exhaustion and the mounting challenges. With the recent fall of Avdiivka due to dwindling supplies, Burns returned to Washington to urge Congress to continue funding Ukraine, warning that without support, Ukraine’s capacity to defend itself would crumble. He emphasized the broader global stakes, arguing that US withdrawal would embolden adversaries like China and strengthen Xi Jinping’s resolve over Taiwan, highlighting the importance of continued US commitment as a deterrent.

Chapter 60 examines President Biden’s complex battle with immigration policy and the US-Mexico border crisis, which intensified as the 2024 election approached. Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, tasked with managing escalating border issues, faced sharp criticism from Republicans who blamed Biden’s more humanitarian approach for a surge in migrant crossings. With asylum cases reaching an overwhelming backlog, Biden advocated for comprehensive immigration reform, which was stalled in Congress. Meanwhile, former President Trump’s strong influence over Republican opposition complicated Biden’s efforts to find a bipartisan solution. As Republican Speaker Mike Johnson and others called for a return to Trump-era policies, Mayorkas’s impeachment fueled the partisan divide over immigration and highlighted the struggle for effective border management amid conflicting policies and public opinion.