War

In the spring of 2022, President Biden shared a quiet, personal evening with a friend at the White House. During their dinner, his son Hunter joined, expressing anxiety about the implications of the upcoming midterm elections, as Republican control of Congress could intensify investigations into his life. President Biden listened wearily before leading his friend on an informal tour of the White House, sharing stories about his family, particularly his late daughter, Naomi, and his father. These memories seemed to transport Biden into an emotional reverie, revealing the enduring impact of his family’s legacy and losses on him as both a leader and a father.

In a conversation at Trump’s Bedminster golf club, Senator Lindsey Graham urged Trump to focus on a “second act” by running for president in 2024, encouraging him to leave discussions of the 2020 election behind. Graham emphasized that success in a new term could help Trump reshape his legacy and solidify his influence in the Republican Party. However, Trump continued to obsess over the previous election, unwilling to shift focus. Later, Graham discussed Israel’s government changes with Trump, urging him to avoid becoming involved. Graham also stressed the importance of continued support in light of the severe imbalance in artillery supplies. Trump, meanwhile, criticized the allocation of funds to Ukraine amid domestic issues, marking a rift with some in the Republican Party who supported the aid package.

In June 2022, Secretary of State Antony Blinken engaged with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz about Germany’s major military shifts in support of Ukraine, acknowledging Scholz’s historic move to increase defense spending. Scholz expressed deep concerns over the symbolic weight of German tanks possibly advancing across Europe again, evoking memories of Germany’s past militarism. This hesitation resurfaced later when Blinken and German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock discussed sending Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. Blinken ultimately proposed a compromise: The US would pledge Abrams tanks, which were more logistically complex, as symbolic support to allow Germany the political cover to send their more immediately useful Leopard tanks. Biden’s January 2023 announcement about the Abrams tanks thus provided Germany with the necessary diplomatic support to commit Leopard tanks to Ukraine’s defense.

In September 2022, US intelligence detected growing signs that Russian President Vladimir Putin might consider using tactical nuclear weapons to counter Ukraine’s advancements in the ongoing war, especially following Russian losses in Kharkiv and the threat to Kherson. With intelligence assessing a significant chance of nuclear escalation, President Biden directed National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and CIA Director Bill Burns to engage Russia diplomatically, aiming to communicate the severe consequences of nuclear action without further provoking Russia. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin delivered a stern message to Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, emphasizing that any nuclear use would fundamentally alter global stability. The US coordinated with allies, and President Xi of China publicly warned against nuclear escalation, a factor that contributed to Russia’s decision to ultimately hold back. Through diplomacy, intelligence, and strategic communication, the US navigated the high-stakes nuclear threat as the conflict continued.

Former President Trump saw the 2022 midterms as a potential steppingstone for a comeback, backing candidates who endorsed his claims of election fraud. However, the anticipated “red wave” did not materialize; Republicans gained the House narrowly, and Democrats retained the Senate, with many of Trump’s chosen candidates losing. Frustrated, Trump still touted the results as a personal victory, despite polls indicating his polarizing effect. Advisers, including Lindsey Graham, urged Trump to pivot his focus to policy rather than toward the 2020 election, but Trump announced his 2024 presidential bid soon afterward. In response, Vice President Harris and the White House viewed the upcoming election as critically consequential, with Harris considering Trump’s potential reelection a profound threat to American democracy.

In late 2022, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan grappled with ensuring Ukraine’s continuous supply of military aid. US-supplied NASAMS and Patriot defense systems helped protect against Russian missiles, yet Ukraine’s struggle to sustain artillery, particularly 155mm ammunition, became critical as the winter intensified. Sullivan and Army Colonel Joe Da Silva sought global suppliers, turning to countries like South Korea to supplement dwindling reserves. Despite Pentagon efforts to encourage Ukraine to conserve artillery, Ukraine’s fight necessitated steady ammunition, as both sides relied heavily on trench warfare. The crisis underscored gaps in US weapons production, with Sullivan ultimately facing difficult decisions about escalating supplies.

In Munich, Secretary of State Antony Blinken advocated for providing Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets to strengthen its air capabilities, despite Pentagon concerns over the time needed for training and fears of escalation with Russia. While Defense Secretary Austin emphasized focusing on Ukraine’s immediate counteroffensive, Blinken argued that initiating pilot training would allow flexibility for future decisions, signaling a long-term US commitment. President Biden initially resisted, fearing the implications, but he ultimately agreed to begin training as a compromise, illustrating his approach to carefully weighing complex decisions.

General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, met with Attorney General Merrick Garland, urging him to address growing threats of domestic violence by militia groups. Milley remained deeply troubled by Trump’s influence and potential danger, expressing his concerns to Woodward and describing Trump as a “fascist” and the “most dangerous person” for the country. Concurrently, Trump launched his 2024 presidential campaign with a narrative of retribution, while Biden’s re-election campaign faced scrutiny as guests at fundraisers noted concerning signs of his cognitive decline, revealing a split perception of the president’s stamina and acuity.

In June 2023, faced with Ukraine’s depletion of artillery, Jake Sullivan and other US leaders deliberated the controversial decision to send cluster munitions to Ukraine, a measure that was deemed necessary to prevent a potential collapse in Ukrainian defenses. These munitions, which had been banned by over 100 countries due to the risk of unexploded bomblets endangering civilians long after conflicts concluded, became Ukraine’s last hope to counter Russia’s artillery advantage. Despite his moral reservations, President Biden approved the transfer, with military and intelligence advisors asserting that withholding the munitions could lead to far graver humanitarian crises under Russian occupation.

In June 2023, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group and an outspoken critic of Russia’s military leadership, led a brief but dramatic “march for justice” toward Moscow. Frustrated with the lack of ammunition for his forces and disillusioned with Russia’s motivations for the Ukraine war, Prigozhin challenged Defense Minister Shoigu and the Kremlin itself. After briefly advancing toward Moscow, Prigozhin struck a deal with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, ending the insurrection. Shortly afterward, Prigozhin was killed in a plane crash—an event viewed by intelligence experts as a calculated move by Putin to maintain control. Later, Putin publicly supported Trump and criticized the US political system, and Trump responded by claiming that he could negotiate peace between Russia and Ukraine, though he provided few specifics on his approach.

On October 7, 2023, Hamas launched an unprecedented surprise attack on Israel, firing 3,000 rockets and sending 3,000 militants across the border. They breached barriers, infiltrated towns, and killed over 1,200 civilians in a wave of violence that included brutal assaults and the mass killing of families and festival attendees. Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Netanyahu and advisor Ron Dermer, were caught off guard by the scale of the attack, which exposed significant intelligence and defense failures. US officials quickly condemned the assault, with President Biden promising support for Israel and warning Hezbollah and Iran against intervention. Israeli intelligence later determined that they had possessed details of the attack plan a year earlier but had dismissed it, underestimating Hamas’s capability and intent. Netanyahu’s government began plans for a decisive military response aimed at dismantling Hamas’s control in Gaza.

Following the October 7 Hamas attack, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan sought ways to deescalate tensions in the region. He turned to a symbolic show of deterrence by repositioning the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group, initially deployed for Ukraine, to the Eastern Mediterranean near Israel. Sullivan consulted Secretary Austin and President Biden, both of whom approved the discreet move as a signal of support for Israel and a warning to adversarial forces without overtly escalating US involvement. Biden emphasized keeping the gesture low-profile to avoid further commitments while still conveying strength.

After learning that American hostages were among those taken by Hamas, Secretary of State Tony Blinken reached out to Qatar Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani (MBAR) due to Qatar’s unique position and ties with Hamas. The emir of Qatar, a strategic intermediary in the Middle East, offered to facilitate negotiations. Jake Sullivan, aware of the significance of the hostages for President Biden, established a dedicated cell comprised of key American and Israeli intelligence figures, coordinating with MBAR to explore diplomatic avenues for hostage release. Biden, however, underscored his personal responsibility for their safe return, emphasizing that, ultimately, he would need to deliver on this mission.

Following the deadly October 7 Hamas attack, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu sought the US’s approval for a preemptive strike against Hezbollah in Lebanon, citing intelligence of an impending attack. President Biden, wary of a regional escalation, urged restraint, arguing that such an offensive would almost certainly provoke a full-scale war with Iran. Biden emphasized that without a clear US commitment, Israel should reconsider, stressing both countries’ mutual goal to avoid broader conflict. Despite mounting pressure from Israel’s military, Biden and his advisors ultimately succeeded in persuading Netanyahu to hold off, as intelligence showed no imminent threat from Hezbollah. The situation highlighted the fragile and volatile nature of Israel’s security climate, underscoring the precariousness of decisions driven by fear and urgency in wartime.

Secretary of State Tony Blinken arrived in Israel on October 12, 2023, where he met Prime Minister Netanyahu and Israel’s security cabinet. Netanyahu’s government prioritized weaponry, while Blinken emphasized the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, where millions of civilians faced dire conditions. Netanyahu suggested relocating Palestinians to Egypt, but Blinken recognized that this plan would likely stir regional outrage and resentment due to its echoes of historical displacements. Blinken then traveled across the Middle East, meeting with key leaders, including Jordan’s King Abdullah, Qatar’s Emir Al Thani, and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, each of whom had varying perspectives on Hamas and the crisis. The meetings highlighted the region’s complex dynamics, with Middle Eastern leaders wary of the long-term stability implications for Gaza and Israel’s planned operations. Although Blinken secured tentative agreements on the issue of humanitarian assistance, his journey underscored deep-seated regional tensions and the difficulty of balancing military and humanitarian priorities amid escalating violence.

On October 16, 2023, Secretary of State Tony Blinken returned to Israel to negotiate humanitarian aid access to Gaza amid Israel’s military response to the October 7 Hamas attacks. He urged Prime Minister Netanyahu to allow aid for civilians, highlighting both moral and strategic benefits. However, Netanyahu initially refused, stressing the need for vengeance and protection. Through multiple intense meetings, Blinken repeatedly emphasized that a humanitarian corridor would support regional stability and facilitate the Biden administration’s support for Israel. Eventually, after a nine-hour negotiation involving cabinet debates, Netanyahu agreed in principle to allow aid, contingent on appearing as though President Biden’s upcoming visit catalyzed the concession, a measure that would offer Netanyahu political cover.

As President Biden prepared to visit Israel on October 17, 2023, intense planning took place within the White House, overseen by Brett McGurk of the National Security Council. After initial uncertainty about the trip, intensified by the reported bombing of a Gaza hospital that killed 500 and prompted accusations against Israel, Biden decided to proceed with his visit, confident in US intelligence that confirmed a Palestinian Islamic Jihad misfire as the cause. The trip aimed to balance support for Israel with Biden’s call for measured, strategic decisions, urging humanitarian aid into Gaza. In the war cabinet, Biden encouraged caution and reminded Israel of mistakes that the US made post-9/11. The trip led to concessions from both Netanyahu and Egypt’s President Sisi, opening the Rafah Crossing to allow a limited but critical flow of aid to Gaza.

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin discussed strategies for managing the escalating threats posed by the Iranian-backed Houthi militia in Yemen. The Houthis, who had ramped up attacks on Red Sea commercial shipping, justified these actions as support for Gaza, aligning themselves with Iran’s “Axis of Resistance,” which includes other militant groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. Austin, trusted for his practical approach and direct communication, emphasized the US’s control over the timing and nature of any potential military responses, promoting strategic restraint. He also advised Sullivan on diplomatic resilience, underscoring his seasoned ability to navigate both ally tensions and complex defense issues. Austin’s guidance was further illustrated in his exchanges with Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, in which he refocused Gallant on accountability in Israel’s military responses rather than allowing justifications rooted solely in the trauma of the October 7 attacks.

At the COP28 Climate Change Conference in Dubai, Vice President Kamala Harris publicly urged Israel to prioritize civilian safety in Gaza, signaling a tougher US stance on humanitarian issues. While President Biden avoided open criticism, Harris stated unequivocally that the US opposed any forced relocation of Palestinians. Meetings with Middle Eastern leaders, including Jordan’s King Abdullah and Egyptian President Sisi, reinforced the regional consensus: that the conflict had to conclude with viable plans for Palestinian governance and a potential state, as ongoing military operations alone could not achieve long-term stability. Secretary of State Antony Blinken pressed Israeli officials to consider a post-conflict plan, emphasizing that military measures could not eliminate the ideological roots of Hamas. President Sisi offered to lead a force in Gaza post-conflict, provided that the US offer strategic support. However, Israeli officials, notably Ron Dermer, rejected any Palestinian state formation as a “reward” for Hamas’s recent violence, resisting diplomatic pathways beyond military objectives.