45 pages • 1 hour read
The Singularity Is Near
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Themes
The Exponential Advancement of Humanity
In the opening of Chapter 2, Kurzweil presents a quote by astrophysicist Carl Sagan:
Two billion years ago, our ancestors were microbes; a half-billion years ago, fish; a hundred million years ago, something like mice; ten million years ago, arboreal apes; and a million years ago, proto-humans puzzling out the taming of fire. Our evolutionary lineage is marked by mastery of change (35).
This is only one of many examples that Kurzweil presents as evidence of the law of accelerating returns. This theory, developed by Kurzweil, proposes that all evolution and advancement develop along a specific pattern. Rather than building on each advancement—one plus one plus one—evolution grows through multiplication. Each new technology makes space for multiple branches of development. Consider, for example, how the development of the smartphone provided the opportunity for myriad applications. This is why, Kurzweil argues, it feels as though time is speeding up: More advances are being made in a shorter amount of time.
One example of this is the development of the internet. Early internet models in the 1960s developed by defense agencies allowed computers to talk to one another. Humans still did not understand the way this new technology would radically alter the landscape of experience. By the 1970s, a global network was created. In the 1990s, the internet became widely available in the family home through personal computers. Until this point, the development of the internet moved so slowly that outside observers may have felt as though it was progressing at a steady rate. However, the reality is that these technologies were beginning to escalate: Since the year 2000, the development of smartphones, social media, AI technology, cloud computing services, and 5G connectivity has expanded the relevance and use of the internet.
Kurzweil argues that this exponential growth can be applied to any discipline, but especially technology. It forms the basis for his prediction of the Singularity. By following the law of accelerating returns, Kurzweil is able to trace the trajectory of any technological evolution. He outlines the lifecycle of technology in Chapter 2. Technology moves from the idea—a concept that Kurzweil finds extremely powerful and transformative—to development and maturity.
However, any technological advancement will always experience only a short victory, as a usurper always lurks around the corner. Often, the technology is replaced by what Kurzweil refers to as “the false pretender,” a technology that will appear to overshadow the previous development but, ultimately, fall to the side of another. Kurzweil cites the cassette tape as the false usurper of the vinyl record, eventually falling away for compact discs and mp3s. Another example is the Blackberry phone, a phone that connected to wireless capabilities but quicky died out with the release of the iPhone.
Kurzweil argues that the exponential advancement of humanity is inevitable and transformational. Kurzweil predicts that humans will reach the Singularity by 2045, if not sooner. The outlines of this new age can already be seen. Human intelligence will continue to grow and expand, moving into the sixth epoch and ushering in an age of cosmic transcendence.
Patterns as Fundamental Reality
In the Prologue, Ray Kurzweil describes himself as a “patternist.” He recognizes that the ability to find and make patterns out of data is the quality of the human brain that ignited human evolution. Pattern recognition, the cognitive process that allows humans to find similarities and differences, forms the foundation for all learning.
Kurzweil’s own relationship with pattern finding developed from an early age. He describes attending a Unitarian church as a young boy, where he spent six-month intervals learning about world religions. He loved finding the ways in which these religions were similar and different. Later in the work, Kurzweil explains that his position as a Singularitarian has always placed him in an isolated position: His ability to spot patterns enabled him to see the trajectory of the future.
Kurzweil asserts that the human brain is a type of pattern-recognition software. Sophisticated by current standards, the abilities of this software will soon be outmoded by artificial intelligence. However, it is this pattern-recognition capability that all mechanical intelligence will be based upon. Kurzweil suggests that technology is made in man’s image, so the most sophisticated mechanical intelligences will utilize the pattern processing power of the brain. By reverse-engineering the brain’s hardware and software, scientists can produce technology that will match and, ultimately, exceed the power of the human brain.
The scientist proposes that the purpose of pattern recognition is to find and create order. This, he suggests, far outweighs theories about increases in complexity. A more sophisticated machine is one that creates more order. This is what the human brain does so well: It takes in trillions of bits of data and quickly and efficiently spots the patterns. It then translates those patterns into meaning. Contemporary artificial intelligence does the same thing. In The Singularity Is Near, Kurzweil predicts that future AI models will be able to pass the Turing Test, revealing their ability to be on par with, if not greater than, human intelligence. As of 2023, two AI models have passed the Turing Test. If Kurzweil is correct, these models are able to engage in pattern recognition to create order from chaos.
Kurzweil sees patterns as the fundamental essence of what it means to be human, arguing that the human brain, the human experience, and all of human history is a collection of patterns. Even the evolution of humans can be traced through patterns, following the trajectory of the law of accelerating returns. Math and physics give insight into the nature of patterns and how they influence and define human life. Kurzweil sees the key to immortality as the preservation of the patterns—the highly ordered software of the human brain. While he recognizes that many may find this description of “humans as patterns” derogatory or diminutive, Kurzweil feels that it is a beautiful and lasting description. One of Kurzweil’s major points in the work is that humans need to be ready to redefine humanity itself. By looking at humanity as ordered patterns, they expand their sense of self and collective identity.
The Merging of Human and Mechanical Intelligence
The Singularity Is Near is built upon the idea that humans will one day reach a point of total transcendence, during which human intelligence expands infinitely outward into the universe. The key to this transcendence, Kurzweil argues, is the Singularity—the point during which humans augment and then merge their intelligence with mechanical intelligence.
The trajectory of technological advancement will lead to a need for greater intelligence. Computational power will be combined with human intelligence to move beyond the fourth and fifth epochs of human intelligence. At this point in time, the nature of humanity will be redefined. Humans will be plugged into machine intelligence, and it will be impossible to tell the two types of intelligences apart. These computers will be extensions of humans themselves, and they will enable greater technological advancements than humans can currently conceive. Debates about whether or not artificial intelligence has consciousness will fall to the wayside once people understand that these new technologies are merely extensions of themselves, outward expressions of their own human brains.
Kurzweil argues that there are far more parallels between how brains work and how technology functions than people realize: “Our brains also operate digitally, through discrete firings of our neurons. The wiring of our interneuronal connections can be digitally described, and the design of our brains is specified by surprisingly small digital genetic code” (85). Kurzweil describes the human brain as a sophisticated model of digital coding. The brain uses pattern recognition to make sense of the world and experiences. Kurzweil draws connections between the functional operation of the brain and mechanical intelligence models: He advocates for the reverse-engineering of the human brain to serve as a blueprint for the development of new technologies. These machines will replicate, and then build upon, human intelligence.
Still, Kurzweil argues that the human brain is also extremely limited and primitive compared to the future of technological advancement. The brain operates at a speed of 200 calculations per second, while the modern computer can run as many as one quintillion calculations per second. Kurzweil asserts that there is no form of human knowledge that cannot be digitally represented. The law of accelerating returns suggests that, almost as soon as artificial intelligence can replicate human intelligence, it will begin to exceed human intelligence. However, this advanced technology is still an expression of human intelligence, even if its processing power far exceeds biological capability.
Kurzweil uses the law of accelerating returns to trace technological evolution, and he proposes that the merging of the two intelligences will bring forward the sixth epoch. Kurzweil calls this “the intelligent destiny of the cosmos” (21). During this period, time, matter, space, and energy will be understood in ways that we cannot yet imagine, and human intelligence will be able to permeate and engineer these processes. It may even be possible to engineer new universes and spread beyond them. Humans will move far beyond their current limitations and exist in the realm of the infinite and the immortal. Kurzweil thus argues that the fate of humanity is that of infinite intelligence.
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