The Premonition: A Pandemic Story

The Premonition: A Pandemic Story is a 2021 nonfiction book by Michael Lewis about an unlikely group of freethinking pandemic researchers whose work puts them at odds with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Trump administration. Their stories unfold against the backdrop of the poor US response to the threat of COVID-19.

Lewis explains in the book’s Introduction that in his 2018 novel, The Fifth Risk, he wondered what would happen if our top officials and experts, who protect us by managing existential risks, were complacent about them. At that time, no one could have predicted that a striking example of such a scenario was only months away. The Premonition gives insight into not only the pandemic’s spread in the US but also the nation’s history with pandemics—and serves as a warning to anyone concerned about preparing for the next, inevitable pandemic.

Plot Summary

Thirteen-year-old Laura Glass begins a science project on a subject that fascinates her: infectious diseases and how they spread. Laura’s early efforts catch the eye of her father, Bob Glass, an accomplished scientist. He helps her develop her ideas into a sophisticated model that shows how dangerous the evolution of an airborne pathogen can be, the ways in which it can spread, and the means by which a pandemic might be halted—school closures being one of the primary means. Laura’s idea eventually becomes a model for what will be known as social distancing.

Like Laura, Dr. Charity Dean finds pathogens and diseases fascinating. Dean is a California public health official who studies tuberculosis (TB) and other diseases. She’s known as someone who stands up for what’s right no matter what and is unfazed by leading unpopular or inconvenient efforts when she considers them just. When she sees that California can play a leading role in the pandemic response, she’s unsurprised when she receives no support from the CDC and is forced to make unpopular decisions.

She eventually joins Carter Mecher, a doctor who has worked for Veterans Affairs and has served as both an official and unofficial White House advisor. He becomes the head of a group of seven thinkers—all doctors—collectively known as the Wolverines. The Wolverines (who include Richard Hatchett, Rajeev Venkayya, Duane Caneva, James Lawler, Matt Hepburn, and Dave Marcozzi) have specialties that make them an ideal group for advising officials during the pandemic. However, their recommendations are usually unpopular, and officials often ignore them or try to shut them down.

Joe DeRisi, a professor at the University of California, San Francisco (UCSF), leads efforts to hunt viruses and other pathogens. Known for helping solve problems that others can’t, he refers to his telephone as the “Red Phone” because of how often it rings. In 2020, he heads up a team at the Chan Zuckerberg Biohub who aim to wipe out all disease by the 22nd century.

In The Premonition, these brilliant minds cross paths as they contribute scientific research, expert advice, and selfless tenacity to the COVID-19 pandemic response in the US. Their knowledge and persistence make a significant difference—despite the federal government’s ambivalence, ignorance, and sometimes downright hostility. Each finds ways to circumvent the nonsensical barriers of high-ranking US political and scientific officials, who seem determined to minimize the threat that the virus poses to their constituents.