The Future We Choose: Surviving the Climate Crisis

The first chapter introduces geological time, outlining briefly where the Earth has been and where it is headed. Geological time is much slower than human time. The most recent ice age, for example, lasted more than two million years. For nearly 12,000 years afterward, the planet was in the Holocene epoch, during which climate conditions allowed humans to flourish. Since the mid-20th century, however, the Earth has entered the Anthropocene epoch. This age is characterized by human activity—not natural forces—driving climate change. In the half century prior to the book’s publication, half of all tropical forests in the world have been lost and populations of the world’s fauna have fallen an average of 60%.

The authors see only two possibilities for our future: “the world we are now creating” and “the world we must create” (6-7). The former would see warming of at least three degrees Celsius—possibly as high as five degrees—by the end of the 21st century, leading to environmental catastrophe and human misery. The latter would limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. This is still possible but only if humanity acts now. Emissions must be halved by 2030, halved again by 2040, and then cut to net-zero by the mid-21st century. This requires a radical turning away from the use of fossil fuels.

This chapter envisions the world in 2050 if humankind does not take steps to limit emissions. Air pollution has reached harmful levels, and the planet’s increasing heat will soon make large areas uninhabitable to humans. Already, several “tipping points” have been reached: Coral reefs in the oceans have all but died out, and the Arctic ice has melted. Each problem is bad in itself but has also had snowballing effects on global warming. Permafrost, ground that is frozen all year long, normally locks in greenhouse gases caused by decomposing carbon. When it melts, it releases those gases into the atmosphere, adding to the warming effect. Melting Arctic ice has also caused sea levels to rise, leading to the flooding of coastal areas; when intact, the ice reflected sunlight, somewhat blunting the warmth of the sun’s rays.

As oceans have absorbed more carbon dioxide, they have become more acidic, which has killed off much of Earth’s marine life. Many countries have banned fishing in hopes of protecting the small stocks that still survive. Inland, temperatures are soaring, drying up the soil and killing wildlife. Extreme heat has led to loss of farmland and mass migration to cities. Such rapid population shifts have resulted in conflict and unrest, often over limited resources like water. Inland glaciers in mountain ranges like the Himalayas have stopped forming new ice in the winter and thus no longer act as sources of water, as summer runoff has ceased.

Class conflict is flaring up since the rich can afford guaranteed access to things that used to be taken for granted—drinking water and fresh produce. Meanwhile, many poor people have only spotty access to these necessities, as droughts and flooding cause periodic food and water shortages. In this scenario, “[t]he tyranny of supply and demand is now unforgiving; because of its increasing scarcity, food can now be wildly expensive” (16). Such shortages also have a negative effect on world trade, as countries begin keeping what they have for their own citizens. Developed countries are better off, sparking a large migration of refugees trying to cross their borders, which are now guarded by armies.

In addition, public health crises have broken out. First, the increasing desperation of people has sharply increased the number of suicides. Second, vectors of disease like ticks and mosquitoes have increased their range on the warming planet, spreading illness as they go. Melting of the permafrost is also releasing ancient microbes that modern humans have not been exposed to and have no immunity to, causing new diseases to crop up worldwide.

This chapter envisions the world in 2050 if humankind does limit emissions. Here, cooperation and progressive action have led to not only a healthier planet but also a healthier lifestyle for people. A massive effort to plant trees has ensured that this world has clean, fresh air. Though these trees were first just a way of absorbing carbon dioxide, people have since realized that trees make their surroundings more pleasant. Cities have become much greener and more livable. Farmland has also incorporated trees alongside crops, resulting in 50% of the world’s land being forested.

Transportation has been revolutionized, with high-speed electric trains prominent on both coasts of America, largely replacing air travel. Vehicles powered by internal combustion engines are extinct. Governments largely banned them by 2030 and took them off the road altogether in 2045. The United States had the hardest time with this transition, but eventually a breakthrough in battery technology and the speed of electric cars won over remaining skeptics.

Advances in electricity production made these developments possible. Wind turbines are everywhere, and buildings are painted with solar paint that acts like solar panels. Thus, all homes and buildings are self-sufficient when it comes to electricity, producing their own and returning any excess to the grid. Wind, solar, and other renewable energy sources, along with some nuclear energy, have dispensed with the burning of all fossil fuels. This technology has aided the developing world especially, allowing for a substantial rise in the standard of living.

Another thing that has aided this process has been an emphasis on local communities. People work to grow food as a community, reducing the need to transport food long distances. Use of the land has become more efficient with the realization that animal products use a disproportionate share of resources: Meat and dairy have all but disappeared, with only some fish farms remaining.

The transport of goods has also undergone much change. Improvements in 3D printing allow people to print many things rather than purchase them, reducing the need for shipping. A network of drones now delivers those items that still need to be shipped. Likewise, air travel has decreased. Biofuels have replaced jet fuel, but travel by plane is both costly and less necessary than in the past. Advances in communication allow for more virtual meetings, replacing in-person meetings that once required travel.

This is not to say that the climate change crisis has been solved. Decades of poor policy have left a large amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Sea levels are still rising from melting glaciers, resulting in the migration of some refugees. The difference in this scenario is that people and governments are cooperating to meet the challenge head-on. People realized that no one could escape disaster, so they began working together—not only to save the planet but to save humanity.