The Fourth Turning: What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America’s Next Rendezvous with Destiny

The Fourth Turning: What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America’s Next Rendezvous with Destiny is a 1997 work of nonfiction that combines elements of history, political science, sociology, and philosophy. It deals with the link between the generational theory popularized by the book’s authors, William Strauss and Neil Howe, and their research into saeculums: units of time roughly the equivalent of a long human life.

The book is divided into three parts: “Seasons,” which explores the book’s overarching theme of time and how time relates to human life and human history; “Turnings,” which deals with the authors’ generational theory as it applies to the current American saeculum; and “Preparations,” which offers the authors’ dire predictions for the crisis era of the upcoming fourth turning. 

Summary

Going back over five Anglo-American centuries, Strauss and Howe discover that within each saeculum, or 80-to-100-year period, there are four dramatic shifts in the mood of the nation, with each lasting roughly 20 years. These four turnings of the saeculum include a “high” marked by an upbeat mood, conformity, and trust in institutions, an “awakening” marked by increased spirituality and rebellion, an “unraveling” in which institutions become distrusted and individualism is strong, and a “crisis” in which a revolution of some type occurs and the old order is destroyed. A new order emerges during the high era of the following saeculum, and the four turnings repeat themselves in the same order.

The premise of the generational theory Strauss and Howe put forward is that history, just like nature and just like human life, is cyclical and seasonal. The approximately 20-year period between turnings is similar to the amount of time that a human experiences before passing into a new phase of life. These phases of life include childhood, young adulthood, midlife, and elderhood. Old generations also pass, and new generations are born within that time frame. Each new generation is born during one of the four turnings of the saeculum, which causes that generation to have a specific archetype, or persona, that is shaped by the mood of the nation at that time. The four recurring generational archetypes include “prophets” (born during a high), “nomads” (born during an awakening), “heroes” (born during the unraveling), and “artists” (born during a crisis).

Over the latter half of the book, Strauss and Howe take their theories concerning archetypes and turnings and apply them directly to the current American saeculum, which began immediately after World War II. They label the first turning the “American High” (1946-1964), the second turning the “Consciousness Revolution” (1964-1984), and the third turning, beginning in 1984 and lasting until what they predict will be roughly 2005, the “Culture Wars.” The authors then provide a historical analysis of previous fourth turnings, describe the characteristics of such an era, and offer suggestions for preparing for the current saeculum’s fourth turning, which they predict will begin around the middle of the first decade of the 21st century and end roughly 20 years later.