Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

The decisiveness and confidence required of leaders would initially seem to be at odds with the humility and deliberation of superforecasters. Therefore, there is the question of whether superforecasters truly are useful models for leaders who must foster a presence and act swiftly to achieve their goals in the face of opposition. However, Tetlock and Gardner suggest that, without superforecaster traits, leaders will make arrogant, hasty decisions and fail, and without leaders, superforecasters might lose their way. This chapter looks at how to reconcile these opposing traits and how elements of superforecasting enhance leadership.

This leader-superforecaster dynamic is nowhere more evident than in the 19th-century Prussian army, where Helmuth von Moltke gained victory over Denmark, Austria, and France by embracing uncertainty and doubt. Moltke knew that the best laid plans would change in battle and that this meant even the humblest foot soldier had to show initiative. Thus, junior members of the Prussian army were invited to come up with their own solutions and present those solutions to their superiors. In the long term, the need for decisive action was counterbalanced with elements that allowed for independent thinking.

While this principle of independence seems the opposite of the image of the Nazis’ lockstep war machine commanded by Adolf Hitler, the Nazis inherited it during World War II.