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352
Book • Nonfiction
2010s
2015
Adult
18+ years
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner explores the Good Judgment Project’s study on the accuracy of predictions made by non-experts called "superforecasters." The book characterizes these individuals by their openness, continuous self-improvement, moderate intelligence, and effectiveness in teamwork. It contrasts foxlike thinkers, who excel in forecasting due to their adaptability, with hedgehoglike thinkers and outlines methods for achieving better forecasting practices.
Informative
Challenging
Contemplative
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Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner is praised for its insightful analysis on the art of prediction, blending empirical research with engaging storytelling. Reviewers highlight its practical applications and robust methodology. Criticisms include dense content and repetitive sections, which may challenge some readers. Overall, it's a valuable read for those interested in decision-making and forecasting. Tetlock, Philip E., and Dan Gardner. Superforecasting. 2015.
A reader who enjoys Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman or The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver would be captivated by Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner. This book targets those fascinated by decision-making, predictive analytics, and improving judgment through evidence-based practices.
24,899 ratings
Loved it
Mixed feelings
Not a fan
Dan Gardner
A Canadian New York Times bestselling author and co-author who examines decision-making, forecasting, and risk, contributing insights into why people trust confident, though often inaccurate, forecast narratives.
Tom Friedman
A prominent political journalist and op-ed columnist whose forecasting prominence contrasts with superforecasters, noted for offering clear narratives despite the lack of quantitative accuracy testing.
Archie Cochrane
A pioneer of evidence-based medical testing who revolutionized medical practices through randomized trials, emphasizing the importance of data over individual expertise.
Nassim Taleb
An investor known for his focus on "black swan" events and skepticism of predictability, highlighting differing views on forecasting utility compared to Tetlock's belief in predicting precursory factors of unpredictable events.
Daniel Kahneman
A Nobel-prize-winning psychologist who introduced System 1 and System 2 thinking, offering insights into how instinctive decisions can hinder accurate forecasting, while critiquing the reliability of superforecasters.
John Maynard Keynes
A British economist recognized for advocating government economic intervention, whose reported adaptability and curiosity are likened to traits desirable in superforecasters.
352
Book • Nonfiction
2010s
2015
Adult
18+ years
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