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55 pages 1 hour read

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

Nonfiction | Book | Adult | Published in 2015

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Book Brief

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Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner

Superforecasting

Nonfiction | Book | Adult | Published in 2015
Book Details
Pages

352

Format

Book • Nonfiction

Setting

2010s

Publication Year

2015

Audience

Adult

Recommended Reading Age

18+ years

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Super Short Summary

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner explores the Good Judgment Project’s study on the accuracy of predictions made by non-experts called "superforecasters." The book characterizes these individuals by their openness, continuous self-improvement, moderate intelligence, and effectiveness in teamwork. It contrasts foxlike thinkers, who excel in forecasting due to their adaptability, with hedgehoglike thinkers and outlines methods for achieving better forecasting practices.

Informative

Challenging

Contemplative

Reviews & Readership

4.3

24,899 ratings

80%

Loved it

16%

Mixed feelings

5%

Not a fan

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Review Roundup

Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner is praised for its insightful analysis on the art of prediction, blending empirical research with engaging storytelling. Reviewers highlight its practical applications and robust methodology. Criticisms include dense content and repetitive sections, which may challenge some readers. Overall, it's a valuable read for those interested in decision-making and forecasting. Tetlock, Philip E., and Dan Gardner. Superforecasting. 2015.

Who should read this

Who Should Read Superforecasting?

A reader who enjoys Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman or The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver would be captivated by Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner. This book targets those fascinated by decision-making, predictive analytics, and improving judgment through evidence-based practices.

4.3

24,899 ratings

80%

Loved it

16%

Mixed feelings

5%

Not a fan

Character List

Philip Tetlock

A Canadian-American co-founder of the Good Judgment Project and co-author who explores the accuracy of expert forecasts versus non-experts, particularly focusing on superforecasters. He is a professor at the University of Pennsylvania with appointments in Wharton, psychology, and political science.

A Canadian New York Times bestselling author and co-author who examines decision-making, forecasting, and risk, contributing insights into why people trust confident, though often inaccurate, forecast narratives.

A prominent political journalist and op-ed columnist whose forecasting prominence contrasts with superforecasters, noted for offering clear narratives despite the lack of quantitative accuracy testing.

A pioneer of evidence-based medical testing who revolutionized medical practices through randomized trials, emphasizing the importance of data over individual expertise.

An investor known for his focus on "black swan" events and skepticism of predictability, highlighting differing views on forecasting utility compared to Tetlock's belief in predicting precursory factors of unpredictable events.

A Nobel-prize-winning psychologist who introduced System 1 and System 2 thinking, offering insights into how instinctive decisions can hinder accurate forecasting, while critiquing the reliability of superforecasters.

A British economist recognized for advocating government economic intervention, whose reported adaptability and curiosity are likened to traits desirable in superforecasters.

Book Details
Pages

352

Format

Book • Nonfiction

Setting

2010s

Publication Year

2015

Audience

Adult

Recommended Reading Age

18+ years

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