Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment

Co-author Daniel Kahneman is an Israeli-American psychologist and economist best known for his work on the psychology of decision-making. In 2002, Kahneman won the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences for his application of cognitive psychology insights on decision-making in uncertain times to economic science. This research, which began in the late 1960s, led to the formation of a new economic discipline: prospect theory.

In more recent years, Kahneman has found fame for his New York Times bestselling 2011 title Thinking, Fast and Slow, which describes the contradictory application of two opposing modes of thought: impulsive, emotional System 1 thinking and slower, more deliberative System 2 thinking. Although the work was academic in scope, it had a wider appeal and won the 2012 National Academies Communication Award for being an accessible work on the subject of behavioral science. Kahneman’s examination of the two opposing thought models contributes to the foundation of his thinking in his research on noise, as he argues that many bad decisions are made due to an overreliance on System 1 thinking or a misuse of System 2 thinking, in which people come up with arguments to support their initial impression, without looking at contradictory evidence.