Fooled By Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets

Taleb provides an update on Nero’s status. He has recovered from his cancer, and he continues to make great gains in the market. Nero lives in London and contends with horrendous traffic during his daily commute. Rather than take the train, Nero decides to indulge himself. He acquires a license to fly a helicopter instead. Even though Nero carefully analyzes probability and risk in his work, he does not seem to pay equal attention to differences in physical risk between operating a car and a helicopter. Nero crashes his helicopter and dies.

In the first postscript, Taleb considers what he calls the inverse skills problem. He defines it as the phenomenon whereby the CEO of a company exhibits fewer hard skills than those lower on the company ladder. He classifies skills by presenting a cook as an example. If the cook is incompetent, the result is immediately noticeable in the poor quality of the food they produce. If a CEO is incompetent, the direct correlation to results is more difficult to determine. Taleb implies that what makes a CEO rise to the position has more to do with political savvy than skill. He distinguishes between CEOs and entrepreneurs, noting that the latter demonstrate the full gamut of quantifiable skills.