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Why did some societies fail to solve environmental crises, even when those problems loomed clearly before them? Diamond proposes four main reasons: (1) people may fail to see them coming; (2) they may fail to recognize the symptoms as dangers; (3) they may fail to try any solutions; and (4) their solutions simply fail. Understanding these reasons may help present-day societies do better.

Communities sometimes try new things without any idea that disaster will follow. The deforestation in early societies, causing losses of soil and other resources, and the 19th-century introduction of rabbits and foxes into Australia, with its costly aftereffects, stand as examples. Appearances can fool settlers, as when trees in a new land are familiar but the soils and other conditions are different, so that the old ways of harvesting the trees produce disastrous results. Modern societies are more aware, though imperfectly, of such dangers and have begun taking steps to mitigate them.

Sometimes problems are imperceptible at first. Leaders far removed from local conditions may fail to notice small things that interfere with decisions they make for the region. Other symptoms may simply be hidden, as with global warming, which for decades lurked inside wide swings in annual temperatures, or with dry spells, as with the

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