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Schumpeter believes that socialism will follow from capitalism’s demise. Capitalism tends toward increasing bureaucratic and technical control of industry. Therefore, the economic organization of capitalism leads toward socialism. Socialism is defined here as a socioeconomic system whereby “the control over means of production and over production itself is vested with a central authority” and with the public (167). This is in contrast to capitalism, where the means of production is in the hands of private individuals and groups.
Schumpeter argues that socialism is an economic doctrine. Socialists believe that the realization of social goods is predicated on a transformation of economic structures. In other words, they believe that a new culture and new values will emerge from economic change. However, socialists are divided on what these new values will amount to.
Schumpeter asks whether socialism would work on a practical and economic level. Namely, would it allocate resources efficiently like capitalism?
One argument suggests that it would not: Optimal production and consumption requires a price mechanism. And without consumer demand, as found in capitalist markets, there could be no such mechanism. How would the socialist central planner know what is optimal to produce without price signals? Schumpeter argues that this problem could be overcome in a socialist economy by creating a system of “credits” or “premiums” for buying and selling. Workers could be paid credits, and “premiums would have to bear an obvious relation to the attractiveness or irksomeness of each job and to the skill that must be acquired in order to fill it” (181). Workers could then “spend” these credits in state-run shops. Meanwhile, large-scale investment decisions could be subject to a democratic vote.
This chapter explains how socialism may be more efficient than capitalism. Schumpeter’s argument is an extension of his discussion of monopoly and oligopoly. With capitalism, “endless moves and counter moves are necessary and decisions have to be taken in an atmosphere of uncertainty that blunts the edge of action” (194). In contrast, with socialism, “that strategy and that uncertainty would be absent” (194). Decisions would be made with more information and be superior under socialism. Greater productivity would result.
The bureaucracy that will emerge to run a socialist regime is problematic. The issue is not necessarily loss of motivation without a profit motive. Nor is it the lack of alternative, non-profit ways for promoting the most competent people. Rather, bureaucracy creates demoralization; it stunts individual efforts that run counter to accepted ways of operating. Schumpeter suggests that this could be mitigated by allowing many of the previous bourgeois class of administrators to keep their positions.
Finally, Schumpeter broaches the question of how capitalism will transition to socialism. When capitalism is “mature” this will not present a great difficulty. Industry will already be highly bureaucratized, bourgeois values and motivations will have been eroded, and property ownership will have become abstract. Given that most classes will be anti-capitalist, socialism can come into formal being relatively peaceably. This can be by means of a mere “constitutional amendment” (221).
However, things will be different if capitalist society is not sufficiently mature. In this case, a revolution would be necessary. Since many groups would not be prepared psychologically for socialism by sufficient bureaucratization of industry, there would be significant resistance. As such, the new socialist state would be compelled to use force and repression to maintain power and implement its ideas.
Schumpeter raises the question, “can socialism work?” (167). He believes that capitalism inevitably gives way to socialism. At a minimum, socialism must be able to create prosperity and social stability. This is both so that post-capitalist society will not itself collapse and that Schumpeter’s evolutionary logic will hold. Schumpeter is optimistic. He claims that socialism will not only match capitalism’s economic achievements but will exceed them.
This is for several reasons. First, socialism “would be incomparably more effective in preventing bursts at some times and depressive reactions at others” (195). These are the “booms” and “busts” of economic cycles. According to Schumpeter, these are caused by adjustments to economic development which renders certain industries or parts of industries obsolete. Under capitalism, such adjustments are inevitably painful as the destruction of certain firms causes unemployment and periods of low demand and growth. At best, capitalism can partly “mitigate” (195) this process by manipulating interest rates or government spending, as advocated by economist John Maynard Keynes.
In contrast, socialism can eliminate the effects of these cycles altogether. In a planned economy, resources from obsolete firms can quickly be reallocated to more productive areas without any painful adjustment period. Consider, for example, a situation where new technology makes it unproductive to have more than 50% of workers in a given industry. With capitalism, the redundant workforce could take years to find new jobs, if at all. Under socialism, the “ministry of production will be in a position—whatever it may actually do—to redirect the men to other employments” (196). The ministry can immediately retrain the workers and find them work in newly expanding industries. This both eliminates the human cost of unemployment and avoids the economic cost of idle resources.
This is not the only economic advantage of socialism, Schumpeter says. The central authority controls all resources and can invest in new technology and innovation on levels surpassing capitalist economies. The rapid industrialization of the Soviet Union in the 1920s and 1930s demonstrates this point. More importantly, socialist regimes have the capacity to enhance worker productivity and discipline. Socialism “will command that moral allegiance which is being increasingly refused to capitalism” (211). The worker is less likely to try their hardest in a system which they believe is exploiting them, but likely to be conscientious in a system they feel has their interests at heart. They can feel that they are working toward a common goal rather than serving a private individual. On top of this, “socialist management will have at its disposal many more tools of authoritarian discipline than any capitalist management can ever have again” (215). With capitalism, the manager must rely on the threat of dismissal to instil worker discipline. This threat is often weak. Meanwhile, the socialist manager can threaten social disgrace to curb insubordination, and, if necessary, the repressive apparatus of the state.
That said, this must be set against “the removal of the disciplining influence exerted by the responsibility for one’s own economic fate” (211). This is the pressure to work hard—enforced under capitalism by the need to survive. In an economy of full employment and guaranteed income this pressure slackens. There is a trade-off between unemployment, relative poverty, and a competitive motivating force.
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