A Short History of Progress

“Who can foretell the human course through time? […] If we see clearly what we are and what we have done we can recognize human behaviour that persists through many times and cultures. Knowing this can tell us what we are likely to do, where we are likely to go from here.”

Wright offers a framework for his text, how it will attempt to answer the question of where we are going, through first delving into what we are and what we have done. This is an introductory statement telling us how to read the text, but it also offers some justification for the text’s composition. Note here that Wright does not take a fully deterministic stance on human development: he does not say the scientific and historical evidence of what we are and what we have done will surely tell us where we are going, but only that it is likely to provide us the tools to make educated guesses. In other words, Wright leaves room for human ingenuity and the unexpected randomness of history in plotting our course.

“Like all creatures, humans have made their way in the world so far by trial and error; unlike other creatures, we have a presence so colossal that error is a luxury we can no longer afford. The world has grown too small to forgive us any big mistakes.”

In this passage humans are positioned as both part of the animal kingdom and unique within it. As much as we are citizens of the earth, we are also its stewards. This passage communicates a central warning of Wright’s text. Without learning form history, we are doomed to repeat it. If society collapses today, it may be the end of the human race.